A lot of Democrats in this state agree with Jana Linderman and Yvonne Weber.

With Iowa’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses less than four weeks away, they’ve made a conscious choice not to support Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

And their rejection of the national Democratic front-runner is carefully reasoned and deeply felt.

"I think her politics and her style are very much the same as the Bush White House and the Karl Rove political playbook," said Linderman, a young lawyer from Cedar Rapids, who’s supporting Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. "As a Democrat, I’m tired of that, of people talking down to me, using political tactics that have been focus-grouped."

"She’s at the bottom of my list," said Weber, 53, a schoolteacher from Mason City, who’s undecided. "She has too many corporate connections, and her position on Iran really steamed me. But if she’s the nominee, I’ll be 100 percent behind her."

Clinton might win the Iowa caucuses; recent polls have her a close second to Obama, within the margin of error. She has assembled a strong political organization and has a committed base. And even if she fails to win Iowa, she’ll still be in a strong position to win the nomination.

"It’s been a yearlong dialogue in Iowa, and people have been very receptive to Sen. Clinton," said Mo Elleithee, a spokesman for the campaign. "We have identified a lot of supporters, many of whom have never gone to a caucus, and if we can turn them out, we’ll do fine."

But in this state, where the initial battle of the 2008 presidential campaign is being waged, Clinton is confronted with legions of doubters within the party - nearly all of whom, it should be noted, say they’ll support her if she wins the nomination.

A poll published this month by the Des Moines Register found that 30 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers have an unfavorable opinion of the New York senator. Only 13 percent had unfavorable views of former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina; for Obama, the figure was 14 percent.

All of this might turn out to be a fleeting, Iowa-only phenomenon. If not, then the Clinton campaign could have reason for concern down the road - if not in securing the nomination, then in generating enthusiasm come the fall.

Interviews with two dozen Democrats - conducted at political events sponsored by groups not affiliated with any candidate or by candidates other than Clinton - gave voice to those poll numbers.

Some voters expressed concerns about Clinton’s electability, saying they see her as a divisive figure.

"The way the conservative attack machine works, I worry that everything on our agenda would be clouded over if she were the candidate," said Bryan Tipton, 45, an undecided Democrat from Newton, Iowa, who has dropped Clinton from his own considerations.

Such concerns were evident in early October as well, when a reporter asked similar questions in similar settings. What was new this month was the number of negative comments about Clinton herself.

"I think she has a tendency to tell people what they want to hear," said Morgan Baethke, 47, a livestock producer from the town of Lacona who’s backing Delaware Sen. Joe Biden. "You tell me: What issue is Hillary Clinton ready to lose this race over?"

"America needs a change," said Dan Spellman, 64, a lawyer and farmer from Perry, who’s for Edwards. "We’ve already had a Bush or a Clinton in the White House for the last 28 years."

Some of the strongest comments came from women who have decided not to support her.

"A lot of people expect women to vote for Hillary because she’s the woman in the race," said Sue Thien, 53, an office manager from Ames who’s for Obama. "I don’t think she’s the right woman. I think she’s too much into the political machinery. I don’t trust a lot of her motives."

The intensity of such sentiments is not surprising, according to David Redlawsk, a political scientist and pollster at the University of Iowa.

"Considering the gender politics, my gut tells me women who aren’t supporting Hillary feel they have to have a strong reason for not being with her," Redlawsk said.

For many voters, male and female, Clinton no longer figures in the mix.

Jamie Sawin, 56, a social worker from Newton, said she was trying to decide between Edwards and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

Thomas Mott, 62, a district judge in Jasper County, lists Biden as his first choice, followed by Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd, Richardson and Edwards.

And in the Iowa caucus system, second choice, third choice, even fourth choice, can matter.

Here’s why: If your candidate doesn’t have the support of 15 percent of the Democrats who show up on caucus night in your precinct, then your candidate is eliminated from the process. So your vote literally doesn’t count, unless you decide to shift to someone else.

In an ABC News/Washington Poll conducted last month, Clinton came in third when likely caucus-goers were asked for a second choice, trailing Obama and Edwards.

"Second choices mattered quite a bit in the 2004 caucuses, but it may not work out that way this time," said former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who’s a leader in the Clinton campaign. "Hillary is by far the most electable candidate we have. And remember, organization is what matters in Iowa. I’m really impressed with the Clinton organization."

But independent analysts say they would be surprised if the senator does well among the undecided and second-choice vote.

In politics, the undecided usually break against the incumbent, and Clinton, having been in the national spotlight for 16 years, is seen as a quasi-incumbent.

"She has a base that is absolutely with her, and she’s having trouble reaching beyond it," said former Iowa Democratic Chairman Dave Nagle. "But it’s not over. The path to victory in the caucuses is the same as always: Organize, organize, organize, and get hot at the end."

Source: Philly.com