Democratic strategists are cringing and conservatives are salivating at the thought of 2008 U.S. House elections if Hillary Clinton leads the Democrat ticket. A poll conducted by the Democratic Party and leaked to the media shows Hillary Clinton trailing Rudolph Giuliani by 10% in a general election matchup in key swing districts, while Barack Obama is effectively tied with Giuliani among the same voters. Aside from the dire concerns about Hillary Clinton’s own electability, the Democratic Party has good reason to be concerned about its presidential candidates’ popularity in “swing districts” and not just “swing states”…

Fresh off their convincing victory in the Congressional elections of 2006, Democrats are anxious to defend their majorities in the House and Senate. Democrats hold only the narrowest lead in the Senate, but here things look good for the blue team in 2008 - Republicans are stuck defending a larger number of seats, and these include some vulnerable incumbents. In the House, the Democrats’ 31 seat advantage might seem to offer breathing room, but here the Democrats must defend some fragile 2006 gains in Republican-leaning districts, and here is where the “down ticket effect” comes into play. It’s fairly obvious that each party’s presidential nominee can influence the fortunes of their Congressional, state, and local candidates - not only do they represent their party in a very public way, they also have a strong effect in determining who shows up to vote. A Democratic candidate who energizes the party’s base (as Obama or Edwards might) can mean extra votes down the ticket for other races, while a nominee who is strongly disliked by Republicans (like Hillary Clinton) will guarantee a sky-high Republican turnout even in the absence of a strong GOP candidate.

By now it should be clear that Hillary Clinton could lose more than just the White House for Democrats. One Democratic lawmaker from Indiana predicts that a Hillary Clinton candidacy would drag other Democrat candidates down by 3 or 4%. So you can see why the conservative “National Review” is eagerly awaiting this “Hillary drag” effect, and eying the list (prepared by a red state Democratic strategist) of 37 Democratic House seats that could be lost if Hillary is nominated. Republicans would need to take just 16 of these seats, while defending their own incumbents, to seize control of the House. Maybe this explains why Republican and FOX News owner Rupert Murdoch has been hosting fundraisers for Hillary Clinton, and why George W. Bush and Karl Rove have both publicly endorsed the media perception that Hillary already has the Democratic primary all wrapped up with a cute little bow on top.

Source: United Against Hillary