The Election Crystal Ball and Hillary Clinton
Post by Vince Foster
Yet, he warns Hillary "has her own unique set of difficulties, and neither her party nor the general electorate has focused on them in a comprehensive way.?
Among them Sabato writes:
- "There is something about Hillary - the person, not the politician - that upsets and repels tens of millions of Americans. Fairly or not, she is seen as cold, calculating, and ruthless, an off-putting combination of characteristics … Almost every voter now has heard something about her leading role in covering up for her husband’s serial infidelities over the decades. This is an unusual role for a spouse, even in the twisted world of politics. Most normal people cannot fathom it, except in the context of a supposed ‘corrupt bargain’ between two power-hungry individuals.?
- "In many surveys, Clinton runs 3-5 percentage points worse than the other widely known Democratic candidates, Obama and Gore, when matched up against the best-known Republican presidential candidates for November 2008 … Close to half of adult Americans already say they have an "unfavorable" opinion of her, and 43-46 percent of Americans say that they would not even consider voting for her.?
- Moreover "Independents, moderates and swing voters are concentrated in this anti-Clinton group, not just Republicans.?
- "The final several percent of swing voters needed to get Hillary Clinton over the top in the general election will vote for her only with the greatest reluctance, more as a way to stop a Republican than as an endorsement of her. That is a shaky way to start a Presidency.?
Noting that "Democrats (and some Independents) have fallen back in love with Bill Clinton, and this has caused a case of mass amnesia about his (and her) many scandals from the 1990s,? Sabato says the "muted reactions to the two new books on Hillary Clinton by Carl Bernstein, Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. Suggests that voters have already absorbed the embarrassing fundamentals and factored the scandals into their fixed perceptions of the Clintons.?
He asks, "Do leopards change their spots? Suppose the news media choose to break more recent (post-January 20, 2001) information about the former President? How much additional tolerance for a continuation of the tired Clinton soap opera is there in the American public?
"If this happens, Democrats will suffer - whether the revelations come before the nomination is decided or after the nominee (if Mrs. Clinton) is chosen. As First Gentleman, Bill Clinton will also be reasonably subject to the highest level of scrutiny for four or eight more years.
"Would the public ignore additional indiscretions as more of the same, or recoil anew and punish Democrats at the polls in future elections?
"One can argue this either way, though we think the latter outcome is much more likely.?
